It may have taken its own sweet time but, after seven weeks of uncharacteristic reticence, the force of nature that is mean reversion finally decided to show up to the FPL party. By the end of Gameweek 07, the four most-owned midfielders in the game had amassed 180 points between them; by the end of Gameweek 08, the quartet’s combined total stood at … 180 points.
Rogers of Chelsea managed one whole point while both Manchester City’s Cherki – who lasted 25 minutes longer on the pitch than the 20 I predicted for him this time last week – and Gross of Brighton both scored zero. The most striking performance, however, came from the Mean Reversion Machine portfolio’s newest asset, Chelsea’s Palmer, whose red-card ensured his first contribution to our cause was a negative one-pointer.
Nor was this points-dodging solely a midfield issue: FPL’s three most-owned defenders – Calafiori of Arsenal, De Cuyper of Brighton and Gvardiol of City (who the portfolio could not quite afford to buy a few weeks ago) – scored a point apiece. And it was a similar story upfront as Calvert-Lewin of Leeds and Joao Pedro of Chelsea, the third and second most popular strikers, respectively managed appearance points and a pre-match injury.
While great news for this column – where faith in mean reversion has never wavered, even for an instant – this all made for a dismal week for the portfolio. As you can see below, only Arsenal goalkeeper Raya, Newcastle defender Hall and perma-captain Haaland managed any sort of return and the resulting, solidly fourth-quartile, 33 points meant the portfolio dropped half-a-million or so places to the 1.25m mark.
“The most striking performance of the week came from the portfolio’s newest asset, Chelsea’s Palmer, whose red-card ensured his first contribution to our cause was a negative one-pointer.
Looking ahead to the coming round of matches, there does not seem to be a lot of point in tinkering around the edges. In keeping with its mandate, and as has been the case the whole season, the portfolio boasts the seven most-owned attackers in the game as well as the most-owned goalkeeper so it is only in defence where we are still struggling fully to replicate the market beyond Calafiori and De Cuyper.
Your adviser had originally intended to replace non-player stalwart asset Van Ewok of Coventry with Arsenal’s Konsa, who has just overhauled Hall as the fifth most-owned defender in FPL. The way that Bournemouth midfielder Tavernier has been shooting up the popularity charts, however – from about 12% ownership last week to approaching double that as I type – a wait-and-see approach seems more prudent.
Another good game would very likely see him overtake Palmer as the fourth most-owned midfielder next week – freeing up sufficient funds to invest in someone who has so far been out of our price range. The 15-point haul by Arsenal’s defensive lynchpin Gabriel last weekend was a stark reminder of what an FPL asset he can be and, all things being equal, it seems likely his ownership will only soar from here. For now, though, we stay with:
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Finishing as always with our ‘Herdwatch’ round-up of the most bought and sold assets in the game, the top-left ‘buys’ table features the three most popular striker replacements for the injured Joao Pedro – Jackson of Aston Villa, Isak of Liverpool and Evanilson of Bournemouth – alongside the two Arsenal defenders who scored 29 points between them last weekend and the aforementioned Tavernier.
The ‘sells’ table meanwhile comprises six players who will have been causing plenty of FPL managers multiple headaches over the last few weeks. In addition to Joao Pedro, they include Szoboszlai of Liverpool – also injured – and the seriously misfiring Manchester United captain Bruno Fernandes. Oddly enough, all three of them also appear in the bottom-right ‘sells’ table from three weeks earlier and for exactly the same reasons.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
