As the deadline for each gameweek grows nearer, more and more Fantasy Premier League players will move from dwelling internally – not to mention interminably – on the permutations of their squad to a more public form of soul-searching. They head to their fantasy football website of choice, lay out their intended set-up, type the time-honoured incantation of ‘Rate my team’ and await the considered verdict of their peers.
Or at least the off-the-cuff, oft-conflicting views of a few people who happen to be online at the time – either because they are hoping someone will rate their own team in return or they are charitable souls with an awful lot to spare in the way of opinion. Either way, every such offering likely ends up being deemed ‘too template’ – meaning it includes too many popular players – or too maverick. So, in other words, not template enough.
Variations on this theme include the view the soul-searcher has spent too much money in defence or attack and thus skimped on their substitutes. Or else they have spent too much on that bench cover and thus not enough in defence or attack. At heart, of course, what the person offering the verdict is really saying is, ‘It is not enough like my team’, while all the person seeking that verdict is really hoping for is three little letters: ‘GTG’.
While that ostensibly translates as ‘Good to go’, its significance is more powerful – the fantasy football equivalent, perhaps, of a priest making the sign of the cross at the end of a church service: Do not worry, dearly beloved, it will all be OK in the end. Our FPL player can head back to their life feeling better about life and their gameweek will likely turn out a little bit better or a little bit worse than average. And then they go again.
Wait a moment …
For our part, here on the Mean Reversion Machine project, we have zero interest in what people think of our team – indeed, a key part of the portfolio mandate is that it deliberately be as template as possible. That is not always easily achieved – especially as the broader market takes time to settle on its thinking in the opening weeks of each new season – but all we can do is our best.
Except this week, when the portfolio adviser is not absolutely certain he has done his best. Let’s ignore the curious case of the striker in the treatment room (or not) – given Chelsea’s Joao Pedro is owned by seven FPL teams in every 10, the extent of his knee injury is pretty much everybody’s problem. Our own issue, meanwhile, continues to be a defence that fails to mirror the market as much as I would like.
The continuing popularity of out-of-position Brighton wingback and new column favourite de Cuyper means that, along with Calafiori of Arsenal, we do boast two of FPL’s four most-owned defenders. And actually, I could have made it three out of four – funding the purchase of Manchester City’s Gvardiol instead of United’s Shaw by bringing in another popular Brighton asset, Pascal Gross, for Arsenal’s Tzolis in midfield.
Since Gvardiol’s imminent price rise would necessitate that happening today, however, it would have been at the cost of a -4 hit, which just does not feel like suitable tracker behaviour … unless … wait a moment … OK, maybe two moments … and we are back. I literally just realised I can do the Gross transfer now and the Gvardiol one later this evening, which is effectively a new gameweek, with no hit.
Well, that was exciting. It is by no means perfect – especially heading into the world’s longest-ever international break with zero transfers – but, if we do end up with any injuries, there is always the emergency option of hitting the ‘wildcard’ button. Either way, for the next few hours at least, the portfolio – with the Pedro situation meaning Haaland back once more as captain and Coventry’s van Ewok likely subbing in – looks like this:
“Let’s ignore the curious case of the striker in the treatment room (or not) – given Chelsea’s Joao Pedro is owned by seven FPL teams in every 10, the extent of his knee injury is pretty much everybody’s problem.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
As for our latest performance, that was anything but template. With Raya saving a penalty on top of his clean sheet, Calafiori and de Cuyper also returning at the back, Chelsea’s Rogers coming good on his first appearance in the portfolio and the entire front line scoring well – especially that man Joao Pedro – the 91-point total was comfortably in the top million, as is our overall rank now. Do not expect a similar showing this weekend …
Ending, as always, with our ‘Herdwatch’ tables of the most bought and sold assets in the game, we arrive at one more excellent reason why FPL players should think twice about subjecting themselves to the scrutiny of the Good-to-Go fraternity: their opinions on precisely which players are – FPL cliché alert – ‘essential’ to any squad change almost on a weekly basis.
A week or two ago, for example, Lewis Hall was widely held out as the game’s must-have defender on account of an attractive run of games and – second FPL cliché alert – ‘multiple routes to points’. On Monday, however, his Newcastle team leaked four goals away to Leeds and, while Hall is still quietly creeping up the ownership charts, Gvardiol has become the latest definition of essential.
Also now considered in the same bracket, as we can see in the top-left chart below, are current FPL points magnets Rogers, Gross and de Cuyper as well as Leeds striker Calvert-Lewin and Forest talisman Morgan Gibbs-White. And, as our top and bottom-right tables show respectively, the former bagged 10 points immediately after being the most-sold player ahead of Gameweek 4 while the latter has amassed 24 points having been the second most-sold player after Gameweek 1. They were good after all – just gone too soon.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
