Sometimes simple really is best. After spending more time than I care to admit trying to come up with a clever introduction to this column, it occurred to me one of the dual aims of the Mean Reversion Machine project is to highlight instances of herdlike behaviour in the Fantasy Premier League game – and, after the opening round of matches, the highest scorer was also the most transferred-in player of the week. What are the chances, eh?
True, Brighton defender Maxime de Cuyper is currently playing ‘out of position’ as a winger and modestly-priced to boot but I think we can be reasonably confident the only number most of his near half a million new owners were looking at when they bought him over the last few days was ‘17’ – the FPL score he racked up against a depleted Aston Villa, courtesy of a goal, an assist, a clean sheet and two bonus points.
Indeed, as you can see from our first ‘Herdwatch’ table of the season below, there really was only one explanation for all six of the most transferred-in players of the week: Sangare and Palmer were the second highest-scoring midfielders last weekend (the first, de Cuyper’s team-mate Hinshelwood, has picked up an injury) while Joao Pedro was the highest-scoring striker.
“We are not beholden to a touching faith the best-possible chance of ensuring a double-digit scorer this week is to buy a player who managed it last time.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Meanwhile, back in defence, Kayode was also among the big scorers of the week while Calafiori’s nine points was hardly a disappointment for his already chunky ownership. As for the six most transferred out players, there was a similar hair-trigger feel to the list – perhaps with the exception of Watkins, who has spent most of the week with nine toes out the door at Villa Park.
Konsa is also a bit of a special case and I suppose there is an argument that, over the coming weeks, you will be able to pick up a first-choice Arsenal defender for £4.4m rather than £4.5m. For the other four, however, if you thought Fernandes, Gibbs-White, Porro and, yes, even Gyokeres were solid ‘buys’ before the first match of the season, could you really have seen enough to change your mind in the ensuing week? OK, maybe Gyokeres …
There will certainly be no impulse-selling on the Mean Reversion Machine – our own brand of portfolio discipline meaning we are primarily beholden to the preferences of the wider market rather than a touching faith the best-possible chance of ensuring a double-digit scorer this week is to buy a player who managed it last time when, very probably: a) they played out of their skin; or b) had everything go in their favour; or c) both.
Despite the traditional scatter-gun moves of the opening days of an FPL season, then, the portfolio is reflecting the wider market as well as it was ahead of Gameweek 1 – that is to say, good in midfield, attack and between the goalposts; less so in defence where FPL players appear undecided on which premium brand to partner with Calafiori – leaving the likes of Gabriel, O’Reilly and Virgil all more popular than our own second choice, Shaw:
Source: Fantasy Premier League
An alternative take on that, of course, is last season’s introduction of defensive contribution points or ‘defcons’ has increased the appeal of a certain type of defender and thus requires a significant change of mindset among FPL players – in effect, that you value what Gabriel or Virgil might do for your squad versus, respectively an £8m or £6.5m midfielder. The hugely attack-minded O’Reilly, of course, remains a law unto himself.
Finally, while points may not be the primary focus of the Mean Reversion Machine, that does not mean we ignore them completely. And it was a solidly second-quartile sort of week, thanks to the Arsenal trio of Raya, Calafiori and Tzolis, a late, late goal from Liverpool’s Szoboszlai and the sort of showing from Chelsea’s Joao Pedro that – given he is now the game’s most-owned player and, as a result, our captain rather than Haaland – it would be lovely to see this weekend.
