Is the absence of anyone to blame if it all goes wrong an underappreciated attraction of trackers? Sure, there is the simplicity and the choice and, of course, all the lovely cheapness – all of which should probably offset their being just a little too bloodless for my own tastes. And yet I had never really considered how, once you have made the single decision to leave every other decision to a little black box, it all becomes rather freeing.
I mean, you cannot shout at the little black box for doing what it was always programmed to do and there are no naughty humans to curse for, say, going further than just casting envious glances towards the Mag Seven when they always swore blind they would be value to the end. And, if everyone else is so blame-free in this scenario, is it not all rather redundant to start picking on that person staring back at you from the mirror?
These thoughts were prompted by long-time MeanReversionMachine captain Joao Pedro finally – inevitably – relinquishing the armband to Erling Haaland. I flagged the possibility last week and, on Wednesday, it duly came to pass that the Man City goal machine, who currently seems to be playing a different game to everyone else, became the most owned player in FPL – as you can see from the current benchmark portfolio here:
“If everyone else is so blame-free in this scenario, is it not all rather redundant to start picking on that person staring back at you from the mirror?
Source: Fantasy Premier League
And, as this is the way the little black box powering the MeanReversionMachine strategy is programmed, he becomes our double-points scoring captain – and, barring injury, seems a decent bet to remain so for the rest of the season. So would it have been nicer if this had happened sooner? Well, on a purely egoistic level, perhaps – since Haaland became part of our benchmark in Gameweek 4, he has scored 46 points to Pedro’s 13.
As things stand, then, the portfolio benefitted from 46 + (13×2) = 72 points whereas, if Haaland had been captain those four weeks, it woulda-coulda-shoulda been (46×2) + 13 = 105 points. That imaginary extra 33 points would be sufficient to take the portfolio’s total score up to 411, from 378, and its ranking nearer the much more respectable 1.5m mark, rather than the 3.7m-odd last week’s reality sees us at:
But here’s the thing – as it is always worth reminding myself as much as anyone else – MeanReversionMachine is a benchmark, not a portfolio. Performance, such as it is, is as nothing compared with something that – in the right light, if you squint a little – might be mistaken for an interesting talking point. Such as no-one being to blame for not captaining Haaland in recent weeks – not even the person who came up with the portfolio rule.
In fact, I welcome it as one less decision on a portfolio to which I am, to be clear, merely an adviser. Whereas, with my own team, each week’s endless pondering can be exhausting. I had been consoling myself the ‘Bench Boost’ chip might offer temporary relief – but what if there are better weeks? Maybe there is something to be said for the tracker approach after all, even if I have zero idea on a black-box rule as to when to Bench-Boost.
Herd-watch
Let’s switch now to the second part of this column’s dual mandate: keeping a close eye on the footballers who are most transferred in and out of squads by Fantasy Premier League’s 12 million-plus players – partly to offer begrudging acknowledgment when the wider market gets something right; principally in the hope of some schadenfreude whenever knee-jerk reactions and running with herd goes wildly wrong.
As you can see below, schadenfreude remains in short supply with the seemingly infinite fondness for Haaland and Semenyo continuing to be rewarded – and the sustained wariness for the likes of Wirtz and Wood remaining unpunished. Surely that changes soon, though, as hundreds of thousands bin Gyokeres, despite Arsenal’s great fixtures; and Grealish, ostensibly for the crime of not being able to play against his parent club this weekend.
And, of course, a certain Mo Salah – dispensed with by more than half a million FPL players in each of the last two gameweeks – ahead of a home game against his favourite opponents. In 15 matches against Manchester United, FPL’s greatest player has scored 13 goals and provided six assists – so given I sold him myself some weeks back, those numbers should offer solace should he burst back to form at Anfield on Sunday. After all, unless you are a little black box, misery does love company.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
