Truly this season’s Mean Reversion Machine project is the cake that never bakes. No sooner have we finally nailed down a first-choice defence and midfield that perfectly reflect the eight most-owned FPL assets in those positions than our front three – who have been set in stone since the first day of the season – starts to look very unsolid indeed.
Not Haaland, of course. The Manchester City striker may have blanked last time out but he found the net at least once in each of the seven gameweeks prior to that and is now owned by four in every five FPL managers – some 25 percentage points ahead of the next most popular asset, Chelsea midfielder Rogers. Barring injury, Haaland looks set to remain the portfolio’s double-scoring captain for the rest of the season.
Speaking of injury, that is where our attacker headaches began. Chelsea’s Joao Pedro – who, towards the start of the season, briefly tussled with Haaland as the game’s most-owned asset – has halved in popularity since hurting his thigh ahead of Gameweek 8. (That, incidentally, prompted an interesting overlap between real and fantasy football as Chelsea staff have since been warned about revealing team news through their own FPL selections.)
Meanwhile – in what was a real problem position for managers last season – suddenly a rash of players cannot seem to stop scoring. Leading the charge has been Aston Villa’s Jackson – who on current trends look set to enter the portfolio at the end of the upcoming international break – but Isak of Liverpool and Evanilson of Bournemouth are also in the mix. So, to a lesser extent, are budget considerations such as Barry of Everton.
Finally, Calvert-Lewin of Leeds – who, much like Jackson in his Chelsea days and Evanilson last season, is not renowned for his consistency in hitting barn doors – is on a slow run and may have a knock too. As such, many FPL managers have found themselves with at least one, often two, forward positions to fill and a disconcerting array of options with which to do so. Pretty much by definition, the market’s problems are this portfolio’s too.
As I type, the most-owned strikers in the game are: Haaland (79%); Joao Pedro (37%); Jackson (27%); Isak (23%); and Calvert-Lewin and Evanilson (both 20%), with Barry further back at about 10%. Isak, Evanilson and especially Jackson are rising fast; Calvert-Lewin and especially Joao Pedro are heading in the opposite direction. Unless the last of these has a miraculous recovery in the coming fortnight, change upfront is coming.
This week, however, change has been in our midfield and defence. The expensive Palmer of Chelsea gives way to Tavernier of Bournemouth, in turn allowing the cut-price Van Ewok of Coventry to be replaced by Gabriel, completing an Arsenal triple-up at the back, which also includes Calafiori and Raya. For the time being then, our still-unbaked cake looks like this:
“Many FPL managers have found themselves with at least one, often two, forward positions to fill and a disconcerting array of options with which to do so.
If the Arsenal defence can continue to stay as watertight as they have in recent weeks, that latter move could prove particular positive for portfolio performance. Indeed, alongside the Chelsea duo of Palmer and Rogers and surprise package De Cuyper of Brighton, Calafiori and Raya were again the lynchpins of a deeply index-like showing last weekend, as set out below, which leaves the portfolio treading water around the 1.5m rank.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Finishing as always with our ‘Herdwatch’ round-up of the most bought and sold assets in the game, the top-left pair of tables are another illustration of the great forward switcheroo that is ongoing, while the top-right shows the rewards immediately reaped by those who plumped for Jackson and the more budget-friendly Evanilson over Isak.
Then again, the bottom-right table shows both what Isak can do when he receives the service from his teammates – and also what can come back to bite both impatient managers and those overly swayed by a ‘yellow flag’ injury scare. As Leeds look towards a nice run over the next two months that includes matches against all three promoted clubs, could Calvert-Lewin sellers end the year feeling similarly scarred?
Source: Fantasy Premier League
