Now where was I? Ah, yes – before we were so rudely interrupted by an international break that seemed to drag on longer than the summer recess, I had formulated a cunning plan that would see the Mean Reversion Machine portfolio start Gameweek 6 perfectly mirroring the 11 most-owned assets in the FPL game. What is more, I did so on the hoof – literally as I was typing the previous column. I mean, how clever is that?
Well … if the execution had matched the theory, it would have been really quite clever indeed. But it didn’t. So it wasn’t. Do professional investors survive failing to make a planned trade at a particular time? Presumably not twice, they don’t. Either way, it would not be a good look in the wonderful world of investment – and you certainly cannot see it happening too often with the passive blackboxery we are seeking to channel here.
Nor has it felt particularly edifying in the alternative reality of fantasy football over the last 17 weeks or however long it has been since the final whistle was blown at the most recent Premier League match. Really – just the 20 days? If you insist – which means just three weeks ago the portfolio’s adviser was supposed to execute a two-part plan.
First, switch out Arsenal midfielder Tzolis for his Brighton counterpart Gross ahead of the Gameweek 5 deadline, leaving the exact money to bring in Manchester City defender Gvardiol for his United neighbour Shaw, post-deadline but before any price changes later that evening. Part one went beautifully – even more so when Gross racked up a 14-point haul in Brighton’s surprise 3-0 dismantling of Arsenal.
Part two, however … well, that was a good deal less successful because your adviser forgot any price changes no longer happen in the wee small hours of the morning but, rather, as midnight strikes. Thus at 12.07am, any relief at finding Gvardiol had not risen in price was dashed by the realisation that Shaw – who, frankly, has been nothing but trouble in our portfolio – had dropped £0.1m, thus scuppering the best-laid plans of mice and me.
So the best I have been able to do with the portfolio’s one available free trade is bin Shaw – and about time too – for the game’s fifth most-owned defender, Hall of Newcastle. Not perfect, as I say, but our back line is now a good deal more representative of the wider market than it has been for any of the previous five Gameweeks, while first-choice goalkeeper, midfield and forwards are all spot-on:
“If the execution had matched the theory, the plan would have been really quite clever indeed. But it didn’t. So it wasn’t.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
As for recent – if that is the right word – performance, Gameweek 5 was just about second-quartile, largely courtesy of that 14-pointer from the new asset and a clean sheet from his teammate de Cuyper, the out-of-position gift who keeps on giving. Team captain Haaland chimed in with a goal, Diop managed some defensive contribution points and that was very much that:
Moving swiftly on, then, to finish with our ‘Herdwatch’ tables of the most bought and sold assets in the game, the top-left one suggests FPL managers spent their international break focusing on cheap (though rising) players who have started the season with a bang – particularly those from Brighton. At the same time, patience has worn out following a string of blanks by Liverpool’s Szoboszlai and United main-man Bruno Fernandes.
On both fronts, one imagines the forces of mean reversion will work their magic sooner or later – while sellers could also come to regret shipping out Chelsea duo Joao Pedro and Palmer on injury doubts that appear to have been dispelled by their manager earlier this afternoon. ‘Longer term’, in the bottom-right table, we can see City midfielder Semenyo and Sunderland striker Brobbey – two other players in or near the treatment room in the last few weeks – did most to disappoint all those who sold them ahead of Gameweek 3.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
