So, if the sequence holds, that means Manchester City will move for Brentford striker Thiago Silva next. As I sit down to write this, City have agreed a deal to sign Crystal Palace captain Marc Guehi – at 39.8%, the most-owned defender and third most-owned player in FPL. This follows the club’s purchase last week of Antoine Semenyo – at 44.2%, the most-owned midfielder and second most-owned player in FPL.
Of course, with Erling Haaland in three-quarters (74.2%) of all FPL teams, City are already home to the most-owned player in FPL – not to mention the second most-owned midfielder (Phil Foden, at 32.2%). So if the club are using the MeanReversionMachine index – oh, OK, the FPL ownership stats as a recruiting metric – it is Thiago (35%) up next. Or Arsenal keeper David Raya (33.6%), if they only want a clean sweep of positions.
Either way, the next time we rebalance the index, Foden is likely to be on his way out – principally because the portfolio is barred from holding more than three players from the same club; but partly because the Stockport Iniesta’s ownership stats are dropping fast. Having racked up scores of 15, 17, 12 and 11 from Gameweeks 13 to 16, his sequence has been 3, 2, 3, 2 and 2 – and FPL players have never been great fans of ‘feast or famine’.
Indices, however, do not get to be fans of anything beyond sticking to the rules that are their raison d’être – which certainly works in MeanReversionMachine’s favour in odd gameweeks like the one just gone. With few popular midfielders putting their hand up, it was the nil-nil draw between Arsenal and Liverpool and a second double-digit haul in a row from Thiago that saw the portfolio easily maintain its first-quartile ranking:
“True, if you want to make the gods laugh, just tell them your plans – but, after the transfer market volatility of recent weeks, inspired by FPL Towers’ Afcon largesse, things do seem to have calmed down a bit.
Going into Gameweek 22 then, the index remains unchanged from last week, with Gabriel, Rice and Thiago the only notable upward movers and really only Foden on the slide. Guehi seems highly unlikely to play for any team this weekend but, while Burnley defender E-Steve away to Liverpool does not scream points, maybe the karmic pay-off will be being able to field four City players against Wolves in Gameweek 23.
True, if you want to make the gods laugh, just tell them your plans – but, after the transfer market volatility of recent weeks, inspired by FPL Towers’ Afcon largesse, things do seem to have calmed down a bit. Indeed, only four players – Enzo, Rogers, Watkins and Wilson – have risen in price since this time last week. So what you see here may well be what you see next Friday too:
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Moving on to our Herdwatch tables of the most transferred in and out players in recent weeks – and the subsequent points gained or lost – these too would indicate the market has regained a degree of poise. At least, that is, if you ignore the curious appearance of Semenyo in both the most recent ‘buy’ and most recent ‘sell’ tables – a feat not even Joao Pedro managed during his peak ‘yoyo’ period in the first half of the season.
If you are after a less anomalous illustration of how the wider FPL market works, however, just take a look at the player who is first in the top-left ‘buy’ table from this week and second in the top-right ‘buy’ table from the week before. Then note his appearance – and subsequent points missed by those losing patience with him – in the lower two ‘sell tables’. I tell you, City will be after him before you know it.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
