Sometimes this little project can claim the veneer of credibility – other times, it is not even worth pretending. When the last game of Gameweek 9 kicked off on Sunday evening, the MeanReversionMachine index was struggling. Blanks across the team – apart from, inevitably these days, Gabriel and, less inevitably these days, Salah – had left it on 34 points and staring down the barrel of a deeply third-quartile week.
After the final whistle had blown, the dust had settled and the ‘defcon’ and bonus points had been allocated, however, MeanReversionMachine was sitting on 60 points and very much first quartile for the week – and, indeed, for the season. As you can see below, this had rather less to do with the three points chipped in by Spurs midfielder Kudus than the 23 points racked up by his team-mate, Micky van de Ven.
Playing away from home. Against a pretty solid Everton defence. That had hitherto this season only conceded two goals in total at the team’s new ground. For his part, after the first eight games of the season, van de Ven was averaging a very respectable four points a match – including, perhaps, a hint of things to come with 14 points in Gameweek 4, but also scraping together a mere five points in total over the last four games.
“Maybe the better takeaway from all this is the power of an asset where the wider market is taking its time in fully appreciating either a change in regulations and/or environment.
The Spurs centre-half is currently the eighth most-owned player in the game which, if we are striving to find an investment analogy – and, believe me, I really, really am – is kind of the equivalent of a fund manager enjoying the portfolio boost from, say, BP in the FTSE 100 or Broadcom in the S&P500 reporting sixfold better earnings than the market had been expecting. And I appreciate ‘kind of’ is doing a lot of heavy lifting there.
Maybe the more instructive investment/FPL takeaway from all this is the power of an asset where the wider market is taking its time in fully appreciating either a change in regulations (the game’s new defensive contributions points regime) and/or environment (the strong comeback apparently being enjoyed in the Premier League this season by set pieces and more direct football).
It is otherwise tough to explain why, pretty much a quarter of the way through the season, six of the top 10 points scorers, and 10 of the top 20, are defenders – and many of them van de Ven-esque centre halves to boot. Indeed, van de Ven is just the latest defender to notch the highest individual weekly FPL score, after Ballard (17 in GW1), Timber (24 – yup, 24 – in GW2), Guehi (15 in GW3) Alderete (17 in GW6) and James (18 in GW8).
Clearly managers need to be on the right defender at the right time to get lucky but, equally, they can help make their own luck by acknowledging the newly-enhanced powers of the FPL centre-half; weighing the attractions of playing four or even five at the back; and sticking with their choices rather than chasing points. Given van de Ven is the eighth most-bought player this week, I cannot decide if that is an argument for or against trackers.
Speaking of which, let’s take a look at the latest MeanReversionMachine index, fresh from its latest rebalancing. OK, so that may be too grand a name for simply switching out Bournemouth ‘defcon magnet’ (copyright: all FPL writers) Senesi for the centre-half many FPL-watchers originally thought would make that description his own, Liverpool’s Virgil.
Looking ahead, while Brighton striker Joao Pedro’s ownership is sinking as fast as his Newcastle counterpart Nick ‘Lord’ Woltemade’s is rising, United midfielder Mbeumo looks favourite to be the next entrant – though whether in place of Salah or Reijnders remains to be seen. Also, for the sharper-eyed among you, while Raya should technically be our second goalkeeper, it seems a waste bringing him unless/until he overtakes Dubravka.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
On now to Herdwatch, our weekly look at the footballers who are most transferred in and out of squads by Fantasy Premier League’s 12 million-plus players. The most recent complete sequence (bottom right-hand corner, below) shows latecomers to some of the season’s most popular bandwagons – Gabriel, Haaland and Semenyo – continue, annoyingly, to reap rewards.
There is perhaps, however, a salutary lesson and harbinger of things to come too – did I sound too hopeful there? – in the shape of Anthony. The Burnley midfielder plundered four goals and two double-digit hauls in his first six games in the Premiership for a total of 40 points – but has managed a whole five points since a third of a million players decided to bring him into their teams ahead of Gameweek 7.
They may be playing for higher-profile teams, but can the likes of Mateta, Mbeumo and Voldemort maintain the stellar returns they have enjoyed in October? Equally, with Liverpool’s fixtures taking a distinct turn for the better from Gameweek 12 and Arsenal’s already as good as they get, is this really the best week to be pressing the ‘eject’ button on Salah, Virgil and Gyokeres? Just asking for a friend.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
