Is there such a thing as a solid, objective ‘sell’ discipline for Fantasy Football managers? Clearly, for almost every player, there will be ‘red flags’ – a run of difficult games, say, or a change of system – but is there a point where you can coolly and calmly switch someone out? More importantly, is there a point where you can coolly and calmly switch someone out yet still feel just about OK when they ‘haul’ the very next gameweek?
This isn’t an issue for the MeanReversionMachine portfolio, of course: asset allocation and stock selection are governed solely by the whims of the broader market – and don’t think its advisers aren’t hugely grateful for the consequent reduction in mental anguish. Back in the active world, however, what are managers to do when faced with the following set of individual gameweek scores – and especially the latter quarter?
0, 1, 0, 12, 3, 1, 3, 3, 1, 4, 3, 2,
15, 17, 12, 11, 3, 2, 3, 2, 2, 1
That, as more committed FPL players may well have spotted, is the scoring sequence of Manchester City’s Phil Foden over the first 22 matches of the season. That is a total of 102 points, of which 67 were racked up in just five games – including a ridiculous run of 55 points from Gameweeks 13 to 16. Then, in the seven gameweeks that followed, he managed 13 whole points – fewer than he plundered in two single matches!
That included his single-point contribution to the portfolio’s dismal score of 32 in Gameweek 22, the full shame of which you can see below. Indeed, aside from a solid defensive performance from the Arsenal duo of Raya and Gabriel, which accounted for almost half our overall score, it was largely a week to forget and MeanReversionMachine finds itself back in second-quartile territory for the season. Where it of course belongs.
“Following two double-digit hauls in Gameweeks 16 and 17, a certain hugely expensive, hugely-owned striker is on his own sub-optimal run of 2, 2, 2, 6, 2 and 1. I mean, when do you pull the plug on that one?
Returning to the Stockport Iniesta, with our eyes fixed firmly in the rearview mirror – as investment policy dictates – MeanReversionMachine only got to enjoy the last of Foden’s double-digit hauls before he embarked on his second dry spell of a season the term ‘rollercoaster’ does no justice to at all. And, in all likelihood, Gameweek 23 will be his last appearance in the portfolio for the time being – if not the season.
As I was asking, though, back in active world, what do you do? What is the objective signal to sell in that seven-game sequence? Surely it is not ahead of Gameweek 17 as even the most fervent disciple of mean-reversion would have given him the home game against West Ham. Equally, many managers would have clung on regardless for this weekend’s home game against Wolves for what turned out to be another one-pointer.
For what it is worth, I did actually sell Foden from my own team ahead of Gameweek 23, partly because I thought Semenyo had a better chance of playing but mainly because I had just ‘had enough’ – and that is no way to run a successful FPL campaign. It is, however, the only ‘sell’ discipline I could muster and I am keenly aware I need to come up with something better – and soon too.
After all, following two double-digit hauls in Gameweeks 16 and 17, a certain hugely expensive, hugely-owned striker is on his own sub-optimal run of 2, 2, 2, 6, 2 and, again versus Wolves, 1. I mean, when do you pull the plug on that one? Not that that is going to be an issue any time soon for MeanReversionMachine – Haaland now sits in three out of every four FPL teams – and, going into Gameweek 23, the whole portfolio looked like this:
Source: Fantasy Premier League
It is the third week in a row for this line-up but Foden will soon to give way – currently to Harry Wilson of Fulham but more likely, by the time we rebalance on Friday, I suspect, to Bruno Fernandes. As you can see in our top-left Herdwatch table below, the Manchester United talisman was the most popular transfer-in ahead of Gameweek 23 – and that despite facing Arsenal away.
It is a kind little run next of Fulham and Spurs at home and West Ham away so you would expect him to be near the top of next week’s ‘buy’ table too. As for the sells, look at the 31 points missed out on by those who transferred out Thiago ahead of Gameweek 20. That is the joint highest three-week ‘loss’ – tying with Joao Pedro, an old friend of this column, from Gameweek 2. Given Chelsea’s upcoming run of West Ham at home, Wolves away and both Leeds and Burnley at home, can we expect him back in our tables before much longer?
Source: Fantasy Premier League
