I am not sure I have ever started writing a piece while actively hoping nobody reads it but that is what I find myself doing in the period I recently heard described as ‘Twixtmas’. Less nauseatingly – at least to my ears – it may also be described as the halfway point of the FPL season so a Mean Reversion Machine round-up seemed in order. Maybe it would be more accurate to say I am actively hoping nobody reads this just yet …
It is also the time of year when fantasy football gameweeks flow thick and fast so, if I leave it another week, we will have four to cover and then we will be in the realms of a truly silly amount of charts – as opposed, I guess, to the usual silly amount. Still, as we bid farewell to 2025, we can do so knowing that our index – at least as I type – is a perfect mirror of the most-owned players in the FPL game.
Two free transfers ahead of Gameweek 18 allowed us to bring the one-man title challenge that is Aston Villa’s Morgan Rogers in for the ‘never-injured’ Bruno Frenandes of Manchester United; and replace the previous flavour of the month among strikers, Thiago of Brentford, with his successor in that department, Ekitiké of Liverpool.
Then this week, bringing things fully into line with the market, in came Liverpool captain Virgil for Bournemouth’s Senesi and Newcastle’s Lewis Miley for occasional Fulham midfielder Josh King. And all done without taking a hit because the portfolio’s adviser finally remembered he still had a wildcard left to play – and four days left to play it. Oops – but it does mean things now look like this:
“The portfolio’s adviser identified two clear weeks to ‘Triple Captain’ Haaland - against Leeds or West Ham. To quote the knight guarding the Holy Grail in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, 'He chose … poorly'.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Along with the ‘WC’ denoting ‘wildcard’ above the Gameweek 19 portfolio, the keen-eyed reader will have spotted the ‘BB’ notation above the previous week’s line-up, indicating that was the week the portfolio played its ‘Bench-boost’ chip. Unlike our wildcard oversight, there was actually some thought involved here: no investment analogies – it was just a week when our bench of most-owned cheapies had relatively easy games.
Unfortunately, it was also a week when our cheap forward, Guiu, never made it onto the pitch and our cheap midfielder, King, saw his one-point cameo wiped out by a yellow-card. Most damage was done at the back, however, where not only was ‘E-Steve’, our hitherto very dependable, cheap defender, injured – so was the portfolio’s regular representative from the Arsenal back line, Jurrien Timber.
The one silver lining among this dark cloud of zero-pointers, however, was the performance of Esteve’s teammate Dubravka, who bagged a clean sheet, two save points and full bonus against Everton. Over the years, I have certainly had worse bench-boosts than his total of 11 points – and, along the way, the Burnley keeper almost single-handedly dragged the portfolio’s weekly performance from bang-average up to first-quartile.
To be fair, as you can see in the righthand graphic below, Spurs defender Van der Ven and Bournemouth talisman (at least for now) Semenyo played their parts as well – as the latter had also done the week before. Arsenal midfielder Rice also did very nicely though even he was overshadowed by the 32 points amassed by Haaland, who continues to wear the MeanReversionMachine captain’s armband.
Once Haaland took on that honour as the game’s most-owned player in Gameweek 8, the portfolio’s adviser identified two clear weeks to use the ‘Triple Captain’ chip on him – when Manchester City played either at home to Leeds in Gameweek 13 or at home to West Ham in Gameweek 17. To quote the knight guarding the Holy Grail in Indiana Jones and the Last Crusade, ‘He chose … poorly’.
Yup, that would be two points tripled all the way up to six – so let’s move swiftly on to our ‘Herdwatch’ tables in the hope of some light relief from the wider market’s buying habits. And there is definitely promise here as the studied air ahead of Gameweek 18 – when arguably solid medium-term picks such as Ekitike, Rogers, Cunha and Rice were among the most-bought players – has been replaced by a distinct whiff of points-chasing.
Ahead of Gameweek 19 – and despite both blanking the previous week – Cunha and Rogers again feature strongly. They are joined, however, by four double-digit haulers from Gameweek 18: Manchester City’s Cherki, Everton’s Keane and – somewhat improbably, given the season so far – not one but two Manchester United defenders in Dorgu and Dalot.
On the ‘sell’ side, meanwhile, offloading Phil Foden after just two lean weeks does feel pretty brave. Obviously the 200,000 or so players who have taken that decision over the last few days will be hoping for a better outcome than, say, the half a million or so who lost patience with Semenyo ahead of Gameweek 16 – and the 25 points he has scored in the three matches since.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
