Even the big boys of indexing at BlackRock, Vanguard and the rest will tell you mirroring a market is not a perfect science but I bet they do not face the challenges I had to over the international break. In theory, it should be relatively straightforward – all I have to do is maintain a squad of FPL players that largely reflects the most-owned players in the game and accumulate free transfers to ‘rebalance’ this benchmark at no cost every month.
What is more, my memory insists I managed this with limited stress over the last two years as part of the BotNAV project because the composition of this benchmark remained relatively stable. Actually, like all good investors should, I keep a record so I can weigh up my decisions – and, having just checked, it seems my memory is vindicated. Last year, for example, a mere two changes were required in the first six weeks.
This year, however, has been a different story. A mix of injuries (Palmer and Frimpong), red cards (Konsa) and some really disappointing starts to the season (yes, I am mainly looking at you, Watkins and Wirtz), means I should really be shipping out almost half the Mean Reversion Machine squad that started the season. On the other hand, taking -4 hits for extra transfers is hardly in the spirit of index-tracking so we are stuck with three.
So out goes Watkins for Haaland, meaning the squad does boast the two most-owned forwards in the game – alongside Marc Gui, who brings the attraction of being ultra-cheap and the irritation of taking up a valuable Chelsea slot after being unexpectedly summoned back from his loan stint at Sunderland. A straightforward switch of Semenyo for Palmer also leaves us with the four most-owned midfielders – plus the seventh.
That is Wirtz, who wins a reprieve because there are multiple fires to fight in defence – and one free transfer and, post-Haaland, very limited funds with which to do so. That is why we have had to go for Mark Guehi, currently the sixth-most-owned defender in the game, rather than the higher priced and higher-owned Cucurella, Virgil, Pedro Porro and Gabriel. At least the squad does have top-owned Van de Ven.
No need to switch the goalkeeping duo either – although I suspect Raya will be making an appearance sooner or later. Where I am going to make a change, however, is in my rigid (bordering on the hair-shirted) adherence to playing the more substantially owned Dubravka over Sanchez. I think we all know he is the cheap back-up keeper for most squads and so he will be for ours too. All of which leaves the GW04 squad looking like this:
“While 61,000-and-counting have looked to beat the rush for Isak, a further 50,000-odd have piled into his teammate and positional revival, the palindromic Ekitike. Can the market really be right on both?
And, to be honest, it was in dire need of freshening up, with the GW03 version running on fumes due to two injured players, that questionable policy on goalkeepers and some seriously ropey form from apparently anyone whose surname begins with a ‘W’. I know it is technically not my team, I know it is picked on quants-based rules and I know I should not get emotionally involved but still – the following just makes me feel very sad:
Nor is there any relief to be had from laughing at the knee-jerk buying and selling decisions of other FPL players, given we had our fun with that last week. We can, however, bring you the major transfer trends from the elongated international break and, as you will see below, the market remains ‘long’ Semenyo and Joao Pedro while continuing to distance itself from Watkins and Wirtz.
Aside from Wood – over whom now dangles an Ange-shaped question-mark at Nottingham Forest – the other three sales were fuelled by concerns over injuries that may or may not actually have healed by the weekend. Back among the buyers, meanwhile, consecutive hauls have no doubt contributed to the rising stock of Grealish and Enzo. To that of Guehi too – even if one of those hauls was in an England shirt and thereby only theoretical.
Clearly their tens of thousands of buyers believe they can make it three hauls in a row – though, of course, the gods of mean reversion may have something to say about that. We will find out soon enough – as we will on the remaining bandwagon of the week, a certain new signing for Liverpool. Interestingly, though, while 61,000-and-counting have looked to beat the rush for Isak, a further 50,000-odd have piled into his teammate and positional revival, the palindromic Ekitike. Can the market really be right on both?
