Monday Club

Monday Club – 13/07/26: Your weekly Wealthwise digest

The week that was, the week that will be – plus, in focus, ‘K v UK’ and ‘What could stall AI?’

The week that was …

 

Economic round-up

IMF upgrade for UK growth

The UK economy is set to grow 1% this year, according to the International Monetary Fund – a modest revision from its previous forecast of 0.8%. The IMF explained that the consequences of the Iran war would weaken growth less than it previously expected. Growth in the UK is still set to lag behind the US and Canada this year but should surpass the other G7 nations of France, Germany, Italy and Japan. Read more from City AM here

Fed minutes reveal growing concerns

The minutes of the June Federal Reserve meeting, which were released last week, have revealed mounting fears over the impact on inflation of the Iran War, tariffs and the AI-investment boom. Even so, US policymakers said they needed more data before making any change to the benchmark Federal Funds Rate. Read more from Yahoo Finance here

UK construction sector contracts again

The UK’s construction sector contracted sharply again in June – albeit at a slower pace than in May. The S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 38.4 in June from 38.2 in May (the 50-mark distinguishing growth from contraction), as a number of survey respondents suggested recent new contract awards and an expected improvement in broader market conditions had created some optimism. Read more from Reuters here

US services sector continues expansion trend

Economic activity in the US services sector continued to expand in June, according to the latest ISM Services PMI Report. This registered 54%, which is down 0.5 percentage points compared with May but still the 24th consecutive month in expansion territory. Read more from PR Newswire here

China’s sees ‘two-track’ inflation dynamic

China’s producer price inflation surged to its highest level in four years in June, although consumer prices continued to ease. Economists saw this as evidence of a ‘two-track dynamic’ as ‌a global AI-fuelled export surge lifts advanced manufacturing, while weak household spending, lacklustre investment and the property downturn continue to restrain domestic activity. Read more from Reuters here

Markets round-up

Iran conflict resumption knocks markets …

The re-escalation of the conflict in the Middle East has wiped out the recent recovery across global financial markets. An exchange of fire between the US and Iran has raised the spectre of further problems in the Strait of Hormuz and higher energy costs. Read more from City AM here

… and pushes up gilt yields

UK borrowing costs surged on news of an end to the ceasefire deal between the US and Iran. The yield on 10-year gilts moved 11 basis points higher to 4.96% after the US launched a “series of powerful strikes” on Iran. Read more from City AM here

SK Hynix in Nasdaq debut

The US-listed shares of SK Hynix jumped 14% on their Nasdaq debut, following the South Korean chipmaker’s $26.5bn (£19.78bn) share sale. This was widely taken as a sign of confidence in chip and memory stocks despite their recent pullback from a dizzying rally. Read more from Reuters here

Easyjet considers takeover bid

EasyJet’s shares jumped after the group said it was considering a $7.7bn takeover bid from Apollo Global Management. Under the terms of the cash offer, EasyJet shareholders would be entitled to £7.15 per share of the company, valuing the budget airline at £5.7bn. Read more from CNBC here

Investors retreat from EM stocks

A sharp retreat from tech-heavy equities in South Korea and Taiwan fuelled net emerging market stock outflows of $46.1bn from foreign investor portfolios in June, according to the monthly report from the Institute of International Finance. It was the second ‌straight month of overall portfolio losses for developing economies. Read more from Reuters here

Japan looks to support domestic equities

Japan’s finance minister Satsuki Katayama has said the government aims to steer the country’s vast state pension funds to increase investments in domestic assets. The statement triggered gains in both the yen and bonds as investors bet billions of dollars could be channelled into ‌Japanese markets. Read more from Reuters here

“In one corner is South Korea, an-AI focused market, flying high on the fortunes of its memory and semiconductor companies. In the other is the UK ...

Selected equity and bond markets: 03/07/26 to 10/07/26

Market 03/07/26
(Close)
10/07/26
(Close)
Gain/loss
FTSE All-Share 5735 5645 -1.6%
S&P500 7483 7575 +1.2%
MSCI World 4842 4868 +0.5%
CNBC Magnificent Seven 420 436 +4.0%
US 10-year treasury (yield) 4.49% 4.56%
UK 10-year gilt (yield) 4.79% 4.88%

Investment round-up

Wealth businesses welcome Mills Review

Wealth and advice business leaders have broadly welcomed the findings of the Financial Conduct Authority’s review into the use of artificial intelligence in financial services. The Mills Review: AI and the Future of Retail Financial Services found autonomous agents are likely to play an increasing role in the provision of investment advice and in financial regulation.

Brooks Macdonald reports turnaround

Brooks Macdonald has reported net inflows of £226m for the year to 30 June 2026, compared with the £396m of net outflows seen the previous year. The turnaround was attributed to the success of the firm’s ‘Reignite Growth’ strategy. Funds under management and advice now sits at £21.7bn.

HVPE comes under Saba attack

Saba Capital has doubled its holding in HarbourVest Global Private Equity (HVPE) to 10%, strengthening its position ahead of this week’s continuation vote. The position largely comprises of swap derivatives held by Saba funds, including the Dublin-based Saba Capital Investment Trusts ETF launched last year.

IPO market revives in UK

The London Stock Exchange saw a marked uptick in proceeds from initial public offerings in the first six months of 2026, increasing 215% year-on-year. According to EY-Parthenon’s latest IPO analysis, the London Stock Exchange recorded seven new listings in the first half of 2026 – three on the main market and four on AIM – raising £577m.

Golden Prospect trust appoints Baker Steel as manager

Golden Prospect Precious Metals has appointed Baker Steel Capital Managers as its new investment manager and AIFM, opting not to follow its former portfolio managers to Tufton Investment Management. The appointment is expected to take effect during the third quarter of 2026.

L&G launches global ETF

L&G has launched the L&G WTW Global Equity Diversified UCITS ETF, which will provide exposure to a custom-made index from MSCI – the WTW Global Equity Diversified Index. The ETF is designed to give investors access to institutional-level investment strategies in a cost-effective way.

Vanguard launches four US ETFs

Vanguard has launched four US ETFs, including small and midcap options. The Vanguard Russell 2000 US Small-Cap UCITS ETF and Vanguard Russell US Mid-Cap UCITS ETF will both cost investors 0.2% per year, while the Vanguard Russell 1000 US Value UCITS ETF and Vanguard Russell 1000 US Growth UCITS ETF will have an ongoing charges figure of 0.16%.

… and the week that will be

Arise ‘King of the North’?

Andy Burnham may be ‘crowned’ as the UK’s new prime minister as early as this week. Burnham currently has the backing of 322 MPs, meaning he needs the backing of just one more Labour MP and the keys to Number 10 are his. For the time being, though, it is business as usual, with Rachel Reeves delivering her Mansion House speech on Tuesday, alongside remarks from Bank of England governor Andrew Bailey. Read more from the FT here

Banks kick off Q2 earnings season

Major banks kick off a second-quarter earnings season for US companies that is expected to be strong. Bank reports could provide insight into consumer strength, through credit card products, and into broader credit trends. Several key economic reports are also due this week, led by the US consumer price index. Read more from Reuters here

The week in numbers

UK economy: Consensus expectations have UK GDP growth at 0.1% in May, while the rolling three-month average is forecast to fall to 0.5% from 0.7%.

US Federal Reserve: Fed chair Kevin Warsh is due to appear before US lawmakers on Capitol Hill on Tuesday, which could provide further clues on the outlook for monetary policy.

US inflation: Consensus expectations have US prices staying flat in June, month on month, and rising 3.95% year on year – down from 4.2% in May. Core inflation is forecast to be 0.2% month-on-month and 2.9% year-on-year, in line with May.

US producer price inflation: Consensus expectations have US producer prices rise 0.5% month-on-month in June.

US consumer sentiment: Consensus expectations have the preliminary reading of the University of Michigan index of US consumer sentiment rising to 50.4 in July, from 49.5 in June.

US retail sales: Consensus forecasts have US retail sales for June up 0.5% month-on-month, from 0.9% in May.

China economy: Consensus expectations have China’s second-quarter GDP growth at 4.7%, year on year, compared with 5% in the first quarter.

Read more from IG here

In focus: UK v K

The fortunes of global stockmarkets are starkly contrasted by the trajectory of two top-10 players. In one corner is South Korea, an-AI focused market, flying high on the fortunes of its memory and semiconductor companies. In the other is the UK, a long-term laggard with little in the way of exciting tech exposure to entice investors. No major surprise, then, that South Korea recently took the UK’s spot as the eighth largest stockmarket in the world.

The fortunes of the South Korean market are built on two memory behemoths – Samsung and SK Hynix – which together account for more than 40% of the KOSPI benchmark index. The pair have boomed on the back of soaring demand for memory to power AI, with Samsung’s share price up 307% over the last year and 3,022% over five years.

“As of last year, the two companies together accounted for roughly 70% and 50% of global DRAM [Dynamic Random Access Memory] and NAND [NAND Flash Memory] revenue, respectively,” says Eunice Hong, investment manager, emerging equities at Barings. “These technologies are fundamental to AI-driven computing, with DRAM enabling high-speed processing and NAND supporting large-scale data storage.”

According to Niamh Brodie-Machur, chief investment officer at Fidelity, Korean businesses’ gains have come from earnings revisions rather than a re-rating of the shares. “Capacity utilisation has increased to the point where there is now restricted supply and therefore the companies have seen massive earnings revisions,” she explains. “They are still on lower multiples – single digits – in recognition of their cyclicality. Our team sees those supply constraints continuing.”

Korea has become a byword for share-price volatility, however, thanks to a market that is hugely concentrated. At the same time, the country has allowed the use of highly leveraged ETFs by domestic investors, which has heightened swings. Market moves of 5% to 10% in a single day are not unusual, and the KOSPI index fell more than 20% between mid-June and early July.

While global institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and FTSE Russell attribute South Korea ‘developed market’ status, most index providers continue to see it as an emerging economy.”

In a bid to address this market volatility, South Korea’s government has started to review possible curbs on single-stock leveraged exchange-traded funds tied to Samsung Electronics and SK Hynix. A regulatory official told Korean media that additional listings of single-stock leveraged ETFs were “effectively off the table”, adding: “The priority now is to cool the overheated market.” Notes Brodie-Machur: “From a risk and oversight perspective, this is something that we need to watch. The volatility is one element. The other is the correlations between subsectors.”

While global institutions such as the IMF, the World Bank and FTSE Russell attribute South Korea ‘developed market’ status, most index providers continue to see it as an emerging economy – for example, only last month, Korea retained its emerging market classification from MSCI. At the time, the group said the limited convertibility of the Korean won in the offshore currency markets remained a key barrier to reclassification.

For its part, the UK stockmarket sits at the other end of the spectrum – its major problem a lack of any enthusiasm among investors rather than too much. Indeed, the market has been declining in relevance for several decades.

“I started in this industry in 1989,” says Clive Beagles, manager on the JOHCM UK Equity Income Fund. “The UK was 15% of the world index and the second largest equity market in the world. Every international investor had to have an allocation to the UK because it was important. It was an honour to be listed in the UK. That figure dropped to about 10% around the turn of the century and has progressively gone down. As of now, the UK is about 3.5% of the MSCI World index.”

In many ways, though, the UK appears a more robust and diverse index than Korea. Some 43% of the FTSE All-Share may be spread across its top 10 holdings but, rather than being focused on a single sector, this percentage takes in banks, oil and gas, pharmaceuticals, industrials and tobacco. Financials are the dominant sector across the index yet still only form around 30% of its market capitalisation.

There are some dangerous precedents for Korea – perhaps the salient example being Scandinavia. At its peak, Nokia accounted for more than 70% of the Nasdaq Helsinki stock exchange, only to miss the handset revolution.”

For some, the UK stockmarket’s weakness is simply a natural consequence of the declining relevance of the country more generally – although plenty of the criticisms levelled at the UK could apply equally to Korea or, for that matter, Taiwan.

Take political risk – in 2024/25 a constitutional crisis resulted in the impeachment and removal of Korea’s then president Yoon Suk Yeol. The country also remains some way behind the UK economically: it is the world’s 15th largest economy – the UK is 5th – with around half the GDP of the UK.

Equally, it is worth remembering Korea’s limitations. Its ‘Value Up’ initiative has certainly helped drive up share prices – but that should also remind investors that, until recently, corporate governance was pretty weak. The UK corporate governance regime remains robust. Furthermore, given the ‘Value Up’ initiative demonstrated how government intervention can improve market participation, it is worth bearing in mind the Mansion House accords could yet achieve something similar for the UK.

A key difference between the pair may be the extent to which each population is willing to back its domestic market. Beagles points out the UK has an “incredibly low” domestic pension fund participation rate, adding: “It is the only major developed market that is underweight its own domestic equity market”. He points out retail investors would rather stick money in cash ISAs – the home for around £40bn to £60bn of UK savings every year.

In contrast, Korean domestic investors have been enthusiastic supporters of their own market. Goldman Sachs reported in April that the introduction of ‘Reshoring Investment Accounts’ had encouraged Korean investors back to their own market. It pointed out that retail investors have been the largest net buyers in 2026 with $15bn (£11.2bn) in inflows, compared with domestic institutional investors and foreign investors.

Nevertheless, there are some dangerous precedents for Korea – perhaps the salient example here being Scandinavia. At its peak, Nokia accounted for more than 70% of the Nasdaq Helsinki stock exchange, only to miss the handset revolution. The Danish market meanwhile has around 40% in Novo Nordisk, which has left it vulnerable to every bump in the road experienced by the healthcare giant.

One final consideration for investors is whether Korea, having long been on the cusp, is eventually promoted to ‘developed market’ status. If this should happen, the UK and Korea will have to compete more directly for a share of global flows – inevitably weakening the former’s already-tenuous grip on passive money. The UK has much to recommend it over Korea but global investors seem unlikely to be in the mood to listen.

Read more on this from the FT here and also from the FT here

In focus: What could stall AI?

The growth of AI infrastructure looks unstoppable. In its most recent results statement, for example, Microsoft justified its vast capital expenditure by saying it cannot keep up with demand. Investors may occasionally lose their nerve but quickly enough seem to find it again. Is AI adoption as inevitable as it seems?

There are factors that could dent the progress of AI, of course – top of the list being regulation. It is clearly a potent technology yet this power remains poorly understood. There has already been regulatory interference in the US and AI nationalism could in due course become a feature.

Take the Pentagon asking Anthropic to remove usage restrictions from its military contracts – the company refused, which prompted a range of retaliatory measures. The government issued an emergency export directive, prohibiting non-US citizens from using Anthropic’s most advanced AI models. The company ended up pulling its advanced models entirely because it had no means to reliably monitor user nationalities.

This appears to have shifted adoption patterns, with increased interest in open-source models – including those offered by China. Once released, these cannot be taken back – unlike OpenAI’s ChatGPT or Anthropic’s Claude, where the company keeps the underlying code and the data is locked up.

Another consideration is whether supply will ultimately catch up on some hardware elements. Semiconductors have always been cyclical and, while this may have been an unusual cycle, are likely to be so again. This could cool the enthusiasm for Micron, AMD and some of the other semiconductor names that have powered markets more recently.

Then there are the physical constraints. For a technology revolution, AI is surprisingly commodity-dependent. Data-centres require cables, power and cooling and so the price of commodities could well prove a brake on growth. There is also the problem that data-centres have to go somewhere. Local residents across the world are increasingly pushing back against development, worrying these sites use too much electricity and water, cause noise pollution and raise local energy bills.

Perhaps most important consideration of all, however, is simply that AI does not provide the productivity gains companies need. Early adopters of AI have already start to rein in its usage as costs strain budgets. As the Financial Times reports here, Amazon, Walmart, Cisco, Uber and Meta are among early adopters that have introduced caps, discouraged wasteful use or pushed employees to cheaper models in a bid to keep AI spending under control. If AI turns out to be more expensive than the people it replaces, companies may think again.

Read more on this from the BBC here and from the Economist here