Picking on the less fortunate is hardly the noblest of instincts but, for a certain type of investor, it can certainly be a profitable one. It is a big reason, for example, why we have seen gilts taking a kicking of late as hedge fund managers queued up to short them in the expectation a temporary jump in inflation on the back of raised energy prices would prevent the Bank of England cutting interest rates – and, indeed, could even lead to hikes.
As one bond expert sighed, “Shorting gilts is an easy and, to some extent, lazy trade” – before going on to acknowledge it was also a perfectly understandable one. Presumably all the money they make along the way will help these investors sleep well at night – better than many UK mortgage holders, at any rate – but, back in FPL world, a similar instinct to kick people when they are down feels less morally fraught.
The mechanism for doing so is slightly different, of course – no shorting for us. Instead we look to target weaker teams – for example, this season, Wolves (up to Christmas), Sunderland and Leeds (away from home), Burnley (always and anywhere) and now, of course, Tottenham. In recent gameweeks, holders of the likes of Gyokeres (13 points), Eze (14) and Sarr (15) can attest to Spur’s ability to refresh FPL assets other teams cannot reach.
Which is why, having largely stayed away from my spreadsheets over the last week, I was surprised to see a complete absence of Liverpool players – Spurs’ opponents on Sunday – from the upper reaches of the Herdwatch table of most transferred-in players. Yes, as I type, Ekitiké is in seventh place, Virgil in 10th and Szoboszlai in 12th – but it’s around the same level of demand as Brentford goalkeeper Kelleher.
Perhaps that will change between now and the Saturday-afternoon FPL deadline given the confirmation earlier today that Spurs will have to play without two more defensive assets – Romero and Paulinho, who clashed heads in the midweek Champions League horror show – in addition to Van de Ven, who misses out following his red card against Palace last week.
The FPL exodus his suspension prompted means Van de Ven – an ever-present in the MeanReversionMachine portfolio – now departs. As predicted last week, his £4.4m cost combined with the parlous state of our total squad value left the portfolio’s adviser little room for manoeuvre but the high-flying, medium-owned, low-price Hill of Bournemouth feels an acceptable compromise. And no-one said FPL tracking was an exact science:
“In recent gameweeks, holders of the likes of Gyokeres, Eze and Sarr can attest to Spur’s ability to refresh FPL assets other teams cannot reach.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
And while the most recent – top-left – ‘buy’ table may be free of Liverpool players, it is jam-packed with familiar names that keep passing through the Herdwatch revolving doors, including Bruno Frenandes, Semenyo and Thiago. Meanwhile, topping the charts for a third time in six weeks is column favourite Joao Pedro. This is perhaps inevitable after his 19-point haul against Aston Villa last time out – though you cannot help wondering how many of those buying him now were among the 200,000-plus selling him just two Gameweeks back.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
