All-change in the MeanReversionMachine index this week and nothing to do with its solidly fourth-quartile performance before the international break began – what was it, three, four months ago? We shall get to that soon enough but, of course, in index world we are not allowed to make decisions based on emotions – not even those generated by the two most-owned players in FPL both missing penalties.
We are led only by the numbers and, with four free transfers to play with, we can address the fact that Manchester United’s Bryan Mbeumo is now demanding inclusion as the second most-owned midfielder in the game. That has a couple of knock-on effects, the most significant of which is funding it through the sale of Mo Salah – just before Liverpool’s enticing run of Forest (h), West Ham (a), Sunderland (h) and Leeds (a).
Technically, at 23.8%, Salah remains the third most-owned midfielder in FPL but I justify my jiggery-pokery by the huge likelihood this is principally due to his presence in the squads of people who have long since given up the game. Looking at the top 100,000 squads as a more realistic indication of market weightings, Salah is 8.5%-owned versus Semenyo (88.3%), Mbeumo (40.3%), Caicedo (34.8%) and Rice (31.5%).
So, hoping he keeps relatively quiet before heading off to the African Cup of Nations around GW16 (possibly now GW15), we bid farewell to Mo, along with fellow MeanReversionMachine ever-presents Kudus and Reijnders – just as I learn to spell him. And, alongside Mbeumo, in come the supposedly defensive midfielders from Chelsea and Arsenal, who have nevertheless already managed 10 attacking returns between them.
The other knock-on effect is Caicedo’s call-up puts us on four Chelsea players – so out goes Sanchez, another portfolio stalwart, for Arsenal keeper Raya. Hmm – I now realise we had the funds to bring in Palace’s Mateta, the third most-owned striker, for Guiu. Yet Raya should have been in since GW5 so let’s address that wrinkle first and worry how to spend our extra cash when we bag our Afcon top-up transfers. All of which leaves:
“In index world we are not allowed to make decisions based on emotions – not even those generated by the two most-owned players in FPL both missing penalties.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
It also leaves a fair smattering of yellow and orange across the portfolio, with a question mark over Semenyo’s fitness and Gabriel definitely injured and out “for weeks”, according to manager Mikel Arteta. That latter news, confirmed as I type, has made up my mind about who to play in goal – yes, I know I’m flipflopping here but, while Dubravka may be marginally more owned, picking Raya is a better indication of the wider market. Really.
Anyway, I did the honourable thing on goalkeepers last week and it just made a bad week even worse – with Sanchez’s clean sheet at home to Wolves benched while I played Dubravka away at West Ham. The madness stops now – though, let’s be honest, that extra four points would still have been the worst weekly score of the MeanReversionMachine season, with Pedro the only one of our active players emerging with any credit:
In an attempt to raise our sagging spirits – if only with a little schadenfreude – let’s turn to the second part of this column’s dual mandate: keeping a close eye on the footballers who are most transferred in and out of FPL in recent weeks. This is partly to offer begrudging acknowledgment when the wider market gets something right but largely in the hope of a cheap laugh when running with the herd goes wildly wrong.
As you can see in the bottom-right corner, we might therefore derive some small pleasure from Salah and Pedro returning to haunt their sellers – while fully acknowledging the bad karma that will undoubtedly be coming our way now we have sold Mo ourselves. More positive for the herd have been their moves for Haaland and Saka – and indeed, up until he pulled up injured while playing for Brazil, that man Gabriel.
Turning to the most recent transfer activity in the top-left corner, Virgil’s appearance confirms the market’s top preference for Gabriel’s replacement (despite Liverpool keeping a most unArsenal-like three clean sheets in the first 11 games of the season). More in keeping with our mission to highlight knee-jerk reactions among buyers and sellers, the move for Brentford striker Thiago feels a little early given his fixtures, while the continued heavy selling of his Newcastle counterpart Woltemade seems unduly harsh. Time, as it always does, will tell.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
