It might be easier on you – and certainly on me – if you think of this as therapy. Deeply mourned – at least by its creators, Adam Lewis and me and, presumably, whoever that other poor soul was who actually listened to the Back of The Net Asset Value podcast, may it rest in peace – the abrupt end of the BotNAV project has left me with a Fantasy Football-related itch. And Mean Reversion Machine is how I plan to scratch it.
The two-part, ahem, concept underpinning BotNAV was that the Fantasy Football game could be used to explore a range of investment ideas – asset allocation, diversification, value, behavioural finance and so forth – which might lead to an actively-managed ‘portfolio of assets’ (squad of players) that would significantly differ from, and perhaps even outperform, the ‘benchmark’ (most-owned template, more of which in a moment).
Over two fairly uneven seasons of Fantasy Premier League and a rather more gratifying Euro 2024 campaign, a reasonable conclusion would be that the theory worked better than the practice. Still, I had fun and I would like to try and continue doing so over the coming season by focusing on a couple of elements of the BotNAV strategy that have very much been part of my own approach over the too many years I have played the game.
Put simply, that is trying to avoid running with the herd or, at the very least, avoid making the sort of knee-jerk decisions that tend to run with a herd mentality. To that end, MeanReversionMachine is a squad of as many of the game’s most-owned players the £100m budget allows me to cram in – ‘enabled’ by the most-owned cut-price player in each of the four positions – and ‘rebalanced’ every month. This was the result for GW01:
“The numbers meant we could not play Sanchez or ‘Baby’ Reijnders and their combined 18 points consequently taunt us from the bench.
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Yes, yes – I know. To explain, there are some basic rules to abide by here – regardless of any resulting anomaly, especially at the start of the season. Importantly, where possible, the team has to play the most-owned players in each position and captain the most-owned player overall. Playing the various chips is tricky but appropriate bandwagon weeks tend to emerge over the season – and bandwagons is what this cautionary tale is all about.
So, after one gameweek, how are things looking? Well, as Viz’s Professor Piehead would intone after every disastrous experiment: “Another partial success.” As you can see below, the numbers meant we could not play Sanchez or ‘Baby’ Reijnders and their combined 18 points consequently taunt us from the bench. Having to captain Palmer over Salah was not ideal either. And Konsa was sent off. And Frimpong is now injured. Sigh.
Gameweek 01 – 15/08/25 (4.30pm)
Source: Fantasy Premier League
At the same time, the high hopes so many FPL squads nurtured for Wirtz, Watkins and Joao Pedro – and, indeed, his team-mate Palmer – have yet to be realised. At least, not after one whole gameweek. After all, FPL is played over 38 gameweeks, isn’t it? And top players, especially ones you spent days – OK, weeks – planning into draft after draft, do not turn bad overnight, do they? You give them a chance to repay your faith, don’t you?
Or maybe not. The other thing this column will keep a close eye on are the footballers who are most transferred in and out of squads by the 10 million-odds souls who play Fantasy Premier League – at least until about half of them get bored around late-September. Just how knee-jerk are those decisions? And just how many hypothetical points were gained or lost over the ensuing three weeks?
Obviously, there are none of those hypothetical points to see this week but the original thesis on bandwagons and kneejerk decisions would appear to have some foundation. As of Friday morning, all six of the most transferred-in players bagged double-digit hauls last weekend – from, in hindsight of course, the more predictable (383,000 buying Haaland) to the rather less so (416,000 picking Sunderland’s Ballard).
Gameweek 02 – 22/08/25 (10.30am)
Source: Fantasy Premier League
Meanwhile – in addition to the perhaps more understandable shipping-out of the injured Frimpong and Gvardiol and suspended Konsa – some 485,000 FPL players have already lost faith with Wirtz; 370,000 have seen enough of Joao Pedro; and 349,000 no longer fancy the chances of West Ham talisman Bowen. Is this strong, smart decision-making or will they shortly be suffering buyer’s remorse. We will begin to find out next week.
