“So what do you make of those crazy kids at Aberdeen and their pivotable vowel syndrome?” chuckled the chairman of the insignificantly sized investment company TwoHoots Asset Management, when I caught up with him the other day. “Well,” I paused, taken aback. “I suppose a couple of thoughts immediately occur. First of all – aren’t our conversations supposed to be a little more topical than that?
“Don’t get me wrong – obviously there is a huge amount of fun to be mined from the subject of brand-based flip-floppery. Still, when even some of the – how can I put this kindly? – dullest commentators in this business feel able to venture onto LinkedIn and make what might possibly, in the right light, be mistaken as jokes on the matter, what we have left is not so much a mine as a sad old hole in the ground.
“And second of all, as a 24-carat mover and shaker in all things investment, do you not have something rather more pressing occupying your thoughts at present?” “Pertinent points, persuasively made,” nodded the chairman. “Taking them in order, on the matter of topicality, I would argue the mine is not quite exhausted and something does remain to be said about what I believe is now pronounced ‘Aberdeeeeeeen’.
“And don’t get me wrong either. Obviously I find it richly entertaining when any of TwoHoots’ sainted rivals splashes the cash on branding – whether that be with the hope of, say, building on one’s heritage or being modern, dynamic and, most importantly, engaging for all one’s client and customer channels. Or, to pick another entirely random example, solving a thorny historical issue of two brands that never quite gelled.
Vanishingly rare
“Yet, even during the times I am on the floor doubled up with laughter, never think for a moment I do not have the capacity to respect strength of decision-making and, yes, of character. In the wonderful world of investment, suspect decisions are ten-a-renminbi; having the chops to execute a considered U-turn – or even ‘E-turn’ – on those decisions, whatever flak may result, is vanishingly rare.
“As for the infinitely more depressing subject of tariffs and trade wars, which I presume is what you were alluding to, what would you have me say? As we all know, the only thing in nature that abhors a vacuum more than, well, nature is the 24-hour news cycle – but, O to the M to the actual G, I have never heard and read so much nonsense spouted by alleged experts as I have since alleged Liberation Day.
“Which, by the way, was not a state secret. Good grief, it didn’t taken a genius to reposition portfolios ahead of the event – and I know this because even our chaps at TwoHoots managed to do so. Reduce risk. Cut equity exposure. Favour quality. Be wary of consumer. Underweight credit. Hold some gold. Proceeds in cash for optionality and opportunism. Find something else to discuss for the other 23 hours and 59 minutes of airtime.”
Uncommonly sensible
“That all sounds uncommonly sensible,” I interjected – mainly because I hadn’t said anything for a while. “It should do,” agreed the chairman. “I effectively nicked it from young Monson at Sarasin. “Did he say anything about the future?” I wondered. “Oh – not you too,” the chairman rolled his eyes. “When you say ‘future’, you really mean ‘short term’, don’t you?
“Listen, if you take anything from our conversation today, let it be this – when the occupant of the White House has an apparent phobia of the status quo, a long old ‘to-do’ list headed ‘Things I didn’t get done last time around’ and a preference for treating policy the same way John Rambo does grenades, then as investors you don’t think about the short term.
“You batten down the hatches, you keep your eyes firmly on the horizon and you keep repeating the four most reassuring words in human history: ‘This too shall pass’. I mean, probabilistically, you can ascribe any size of percentage you wish to the chances the man might vaguely, possibly, just about be onto something. And, if he isn’t, you never know – eventually he might even take a page out of the playbook of the new management at you-know-wheeeeeeere.”
“You batten down the hatches, you keep your eyes firmly on the horizon and you keep repeating the four most reassuring words in human history: ‘This too shall pass’.
